The Yellowstone supervolcano is one of the most volatile places on Earth. With its 72 km distance and one of the calderas with the most magma on the planet, this supervolcano represents one of the greatest risks in America. One in the Yellowstone supervolcano would mean a real geological change for a large part of the planet.
What would happen if the Yellowstone supervolcano erupts?
Due to the magnitude of the geological formation that the Yellowstone caldera represents, the National Park would become a toxic area, in addition to practically the entire United States could be covered in volcanic ash. The vegetation and fauna that live there would completely die, while the pyroclastic flows from the supervolcano would affect states close to it.
A completely devastating scenario would cover the entire United States, however, despite the latent presence of , an eruption in the Yellowstone supervolcano today is unlikely because the earthquakes do not exceed 3° in magnitude.
More magma, more strength…
Recently, an international team of researchers led by geologist Ross Maguire of the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign conducted a study with the goal of determining how much magma there is beneath Yellowstone and how it is distributed. Magma is melt in its liquid form that is used to predict eruptions by comparing current conditions with those under which past eruptions were predicted.
In the study, researchers used a new topographic imaging technique to analyze recordings of seismic waves taken between 2000 and 2008, and applied a process known as full waveform inversion to better interpret bouncing and reflecting vibrations.
Based on changes in wave speed measured at different depths, The researchers were able to estimate that the soft magma reservoir beneath Yellowstone has a partial melt fraction of between 16% and 20%, compared to previous models that estimated less than 10%.
According to landscape estimates, between 35 and 50% fusion is needed to cause an eruption, although the truth is that there are a series of factors at play that make these phenomena difficult to predict. They claim that even the most modern exploration methods can miss certain pockets of liquid magma.
“Although our results indicate that the Yellowstone magma reservoir contains a considerable amount of melt at depths that fueled previous eruptions, our study does not confirm the presence of an eruptible body nor does it imply a future eruption,” Maguire wrote in the published paper.
Prediction models are constantly refined as new data is obtained and new eruptions occur. In the last 2.1 million years there have been three catastrophic eruptions at Yellowstone, and although it is unknown when the next one might occur, a clearer indication of the caldera’s geology is helpful.
“Deformation phenomena, such as new magma intrusions or tectonic deformations that could begin to mobilize and concentrate magma, would probably be accompanied by a series of dynamic processes for ongoing geophysical and geochemical monitoring,” the researchers said in the article.
The area is under constant observation by the United States Geological Survey and the Yellowstone Volcanic Observatory, which will allow warning signs to be caught well in advance.
Maguire, R., Schmandt, B., Chen, M. Magma accumulation at depths of prior rhyolite storage beneath Yellowstone Caldera. Science Vol 378, Issue 6623 (2022).