In all types of games of chance, the chances of winning a prize are very remote, while the chances of losing are much greater than winning. Therefore, it seems paradoxical that, despite knowing these statistics and these probabilities, many people are still driven to invest a lot of money in the game, with the illusion that they can win the luck.
Among the psychological theories that try to explain this behavior is the optimism bias, highlighted by the American psychologist Neil Weinstein in 1980. In this Psychology-Online article, we will explain what is optimist bias in psychology with some examples that will allow you to understand it better.
What is optimism bias in psychology
The results of Neil Weinstein’s studies showed that most people tend to believe that we have many possibilities of encountering positive events compared to the others. On the contrary, we tend to think that we are less likely to suffer negative effects than others.
In short, the optimistic bias in psychology is the explanation of why everyone is convinced that the future and luck will be on their side and that certain things only happen to others. Thus, it is a cognitive bias that induces a person to believe that he or she is less exposed to negative events What others. If this belief involves a risk or leads to error, then we speak of unrealistic optimism.
Why we tend to be optimistic
When asked why we are so oriented toward optimism, experts respond that our brain has been designed to see the glass as half full. The factors that lead to optimistic bias can be classified into four different groups:
- Desired End States of Comparative Judgment: Many explanations for optimism bias in psychology come from the idea of set goals and expected outcomes. People tend to consider their risk lower than that of others because of the image they want to project. These explanations include factors such as and perceived control.
- Cognitive mechanisms: Overoptimism bias can also be affected by three cognitive mechanisms that guide judgments and decision-making processes: bias, focus on an individual subject, and interpersonal distance.
- Information about oneself in relation to a goal: People know much more about themselves than about others. Therefore, they tend to draw specific conclusions about their own risks, but have more difficulty drawing conclusions about the risks of others. This produces differences in judgments and conclusions about personal risks compared to the risks of others.
- Underlying conditions: Research has shown that people show a less optimistic bias when they are in a bad mood and an optimistic bias when they are in a good mood.
Risks of optimistic bias
In order to safeguard our well-being, the brain emphasizes the triumph of hope over realism, which explains why this bias is widespread in all cultures around the world. If we are asked to indicate the possibility of becoming ill, dying in an accident, or losing our job, we will undoubtedly underestimate the probability that these events may affect our lives.
In this sense, it is important to be aware of the risks of optimistic bias so that it does not harm us. We show them to you below:
- Illusion of invulnerability: Too sunny a view of our lives can undermine the quality of our decision-making process. Feeling invulnerable does not allow us to see reality as it is.
- Unrealistic optimismFor example, we mistakenly believe that we are less likely to have an accident or need extra money, so we sometimes tend not to wear a seat belt or set aside savings for emergencies.
- Alteration in the perception of events catastrophic: for example, during the pandemic some people have refused to wear masks, have organized parties and have not respected basic rules to prevent contagion.
Examples of optimistic bias in psychology
As we have seen in the previous section, the optimism bias carries risks that are important to take into account. If you want to learn how to identify this cognitive bias, don’t miss these examples:
- Driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs: Optimism bias drives children to drive under the influence of alcohol or some other drug. In practice, they believe themselves to be more intelligent, good, attentive and fortunate, so they feel that nothing will happen to them if they do it. Precisely, in this article you will find information about the .
- Spending a lot of money on vacation: the fact of spending all the money on a trip without taking into account that on the return it will be necessary to have savings for the cats that may come.
This article is merely informative, at Psychology-Online we do not have the power to make a diagnosis or recommend a treatment. We invite you to go to a psychologist to treat your particular case.
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Bibliography
- Boncinelli, E. (2021). What did we say in this head? Il road accidentato della ragione. Il Saggiatore.