The percentage of the population aged 65 and over, which currently stands at 19.6% of the total population, would reach a maximum of 31.4% around 2050; thereafter it would begin to decline. This is reflected in the study ‘Population projections 2020-2070’, prepared by the National Institute of Statistics (INE).
The current demographic trend shows that the largest age group as of January 1, 2020, which are those born in the years 1970-1979 (that is, people between 40 and 49 years old), it would continue to be so in 2050 (with ages between 70 and 79 years). In the last years of the projection there would be a certain population rejuvenation as the generations of those born in the 70s of the 20th century, with higher fertility, become extinct.
Thus, the largest groups on January 1, 2070 would be those born between 2005 and 2014, whose ages would be between 55 and 64 years. The population between 20 and 64 years of age, which currently accounts for 60.8% of the total, would represent 51.9% of the total in 2050. In 2070 it would partially recover, up to 54.4%.
Population pyramids of Spain (years 2020, 2050 and 2070)
Source 2016-2020, Basic Demographic Indicators (provisional 2020)
On the other hand, and if current trends continue, dependency ratio (quotient, as a percentage, between the population under 16 years of age or over 64 and the population between 16 and 64 years of age) also would reach a maximum around 2050 (81.1%)to gradually drop thereafter, to 72.2% in 2070. The centennial population (those who are 100 years old or older) would go from 12,551 people at present to 217,344 at the end of the projected period (2070), the INE report points out.
Decline in birth rates and increase in deaths
According to in the next 15 years Spain would gain 954,497 inhabitants (2.0%), to exceed 48 million people in 2035. In 2070 the population would reach 50.6 million, with an increase of 3.2 million people. The progressive and uninterrupted increase in deathsalways greater than the number of births, would give rise to a negative vegetative balance throughout the projected period.
This negative vegetative balance would be exceeded by the positive migratory balancewhich would cause a population increase during all years of the projected period. The population increase would therefore be exclusively due to international migration. This would mean that the population born in Spain would always decrease and would go from representing 85.2% of the total currently, to representing 66.8% within 50 years.
The number of births would continue to decline until 2027, continuing the trend that began in 2009. However, from 2028 births could begin to increase due to the arrival of increasingly numerous generations at the ages of greatest fertility. Specifically, those born from the second half of the 90s. Despite this, births would always be below deaths.
He The effect of COVID-19 is reflected in a short-term decrease in life expectancy at birth in 2020, which is estimated to drop by 0.9 years for men and 0.8 years for women. This decrease would recover in 2021. Life expectancy at birth would reach in 2069 the 85.8 years in men and 90.0 in women, with a gain of 4.9 and 3.8 years, respectively, compared to current values. For its part, life expectancy for people aged 65 in 2069 would be 22.5 years for men (3.8 more than currently) and 26.3 for women (3.6 more).
Despite the longer life expectancy, the number of deaths would continue to grow until reaching a maximum in 2063. For the year 2020, the projection estimates a total of 466,583 deaths, compared to 415,070 in 2019. For its part, in 2034 there would be 482,132 deaths among residents in Spain. And in 2069 the 641,867 deaths would be reached.
Before him declining birth rates and rising deathsin Spain there would always be more deaths than births (growth or negative vegetative balance) during the next 15 years. This vegetative balance would reach its lowest value around 2060, and would gradually recover thereafter.
The INE points out that to the uncertainty that usually surrounds population projections this time is added the impact of COVID-19, which forces a reconsideration of some of the hypotheses of future evolution. Specifically, these projections have taken into account the excess mortality observed up to the month of July of 2020, as well as the decrease experienced in recent months in the immigration and emigration.