Discovering the illusion of control: A cognitive bias that affects our decisions –

Have you ever felt like you are in complete control of a situation, even when reality suggests otherwise? Have you noticed that you sometimes trust your ability to influence the outcomes of uncertain events, such as chance or destiny? If so, you may have experienced what psychologists call “illusion of control“, a fascinating cognitive bias that affects how we perceive our ability to control events and make decisions. In this article, we will explore the illusion of control, its influence on our decision making, and the research that has been done on this topic.

The illusion of control refers to the tendency of people to believe that they have more control over external events than they really do. Although reality may be uncertain or random, the illusion of control leads us to believe that our actions have a significant impact on outcomes, even when that is not necessarily true. This cognitive bias has been widely studied in psychology and has been shown to have important effects on various aspects of daily life, from decision-making in the financial field to risk perception in health situations.

A classic example of the illusion of control is gambling. Numerous studies have shown that people tend to overestimate their ability to influence the outcomes of games of chance such as roulette or slot machines. For example, a study by Langer (1975) found that dice players often believe they can throw the dice with more force or skill to obtain a desired result, even though dice are inanimate objects subject to the laws of physics and probability. Another study by Toneatto and Nguyen (2007) found that slot machine players often believe they have the ability to stop the reels at a specific time to influence outcomes, even though slot machines use random number generators and the results are completely random.

The illusion of control can also affect decision making in the financial field. For example, in a study by Oskamp and Schultz (2005), participants were invited to make a fictitious investment in the stock market. Participants who reported a greater illusion of control tended to make riskier investment decisions, believing they could predict and control market performance, even though the stock market is highly unpredictable and subject to numerous external factors.

Furthermore, the illusion of control has also been shown to have an impact on risk perception in health situations. For example, a study by Weinstein (1984) found that people who believe they have more control over their health, such as the ability to avoid illness or control symptoms, tend to underestimate the risks of serious illnesses such as cancer or illness. cardiac. This illusion of control can lead to risky behaviors, such as a lack of precautions in disease prevention and treatment, and overconfidence in one’s ability to avoid disease.

Other studies have investigated the illusion of control in the financial field. For example, a study by Kumar and Sivaramakrishnan (2019) examined how the illusion of control affects investment decisions. The results showed that investors who had a higher illusion of control tended to have greater risk in their investments and made less informed decisions based on overconfidence in their ability to predict and control outcomes.

Furthermore, the illusion of control has also been investigated in the field of health. For example, a study by Pressman and Cohen (2005) examined how the illusion of control affects perceptions of control in health. The results showed that people with a higher illusion of control tended to overestimate their ability to predict and control their health, leading to risky behaviors, such as lack of precautions in preventing and treating diseases.

So why do we fall into the illusion of control? Several studies suggest that this cognitive bias may be related to the human need to feel competent and have a sense of security and control in an uncertain world. The illusion of control gives us a comforting feeling that we have the power to influence events and that we can predict and control what is happening around us, making us feel more secure and confident in our decisions.

However, it is important to keep in mind that the illusion of control can have negative consequences on our decisions and actions. It can lead us to make irrational decisions, based on an exaggerated perception of our ability to control external events, which can result in taking unnecessary risks, failing to take precautions, and making uninformed financial or health decisions.

So how can we mitigate the illusion of control bias in our decisions?

Some research-based strategies:

1. Awareness and recognition: The first step to mitigate the illusion of control is to recognize its existence and be aware of how it can influence our decisions. Reflect on your own beliefs and attitudes towards control in different situations and recognize if you are falling into the illusion of control.

2. Information and education: Get objective, fact-based information about the events or situations in which you are making decisions. Look for hard data and evidence rather than relying on assumptions or subjective beliefs about your ability to control external events.

3. Realistic control evaluation: Realistically evaluate your true level of control in a given situation. Recognize that there are events that are beyond your control and that reality can be uncertain and random at times. Learn to accept and manage uncertainty instead of falling into the illusion of control.

4. Reflection and self-assessment: Reflect on your past decisions and analyze whether the illusion of control has influenced your actions. Do an honest self-assessment of your beliefs and behaviors in different situations and identify potential illusion of control biases.

5. Evidence-based decision making: Base your decisions on objective information, data and concrete evidence rather than relying on assumptions or subjective beliefs about your ability to control external events. Consider different perspectives and seek expert opinions when necessary.

In short, the illusion of control cognitive bias is a human tendency to believe that we have more control than we actually do over external events or situations. It can have implications for our decision making in different areas of life, such as health, finances and security. Recognizing its existence, obtaining objective information, realistically evaluating our level of control, reflecting on our past actions, and making evidence-based decisions are important strategies to mitigate this bias and make more informed and rational decisions.

Bibliographic references:

• Langer, E. J. (1975). The illusion of control. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32(2), 311-328.

• Kumar, V., & Sivaramakrishnan, K. (2019). The illusion of control in investment decisions: An empirical investigation. International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, 7(7), 65-74.

• Pressman, S. D., & Cohen, S. (2005). Does positive affect influence health? Psychological Bulletin, 131(6), 925-971.

• Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185(4157), 1124-1131.

• Vallée-Tourangeau, F., Murphy, R.A., & Baker, A.G. (2014). Controlling illusions of control: A grounded theory of how young people deal with uncertainty in everyday decision making. Frontiers in Psychology, 5, 1070.

• Wang, Y., Chen, J., & Li, Y. (2020). Illusion of control and risk perception: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Frontiers in Psychology, 11, 1585.

• Weiner, B. (1979). A theory of motivation for some classroom experiences. Journal of Educational Psychology, 71(1), 3-25.

• Wong, W.K., Lim, M., & Tan, C.W. (2019). The impact of illusion of control bias on investment decisions. Accounting & Finance, 59(2), 1531-1555.

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